The UK subsidence risk map uses Met Office data and the British Geographical Society (BGS) expertise to provide an accurate picture of locations within the UK where buildings are at increased risk of subsidence.
The type of ground that supports the foundations of a building determines the risk of subsidence.
The BGS considers geotechnical information about the ground in the UK to assess its susceptibility to ‘shrink-swell’ subsidence, where the volume of the soil rises or falls depending on its moisture content. Data about long-term temperature and rainfall patterns are used to accurately predict areas with a higher risk of shrink-swell subsidence and produce the UK subsidence risk map that you can see here:
Source: BGS © UKRI – Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2022
The map shows areas of the country coloured in yellow and red. If your property or asset is in one of those areas, it could be at a higher risk of subsidence than structures in other parts of the UK where the ground is less impacted by moisture content.
Predictions based on the effects of climate change enabled the production of a UK subsidence risk map for the year 2070. This shows new areas becoming at risk of subsidence and higher density of red zones where subsidence is ‘highly likely’. To put this into perspective, the projections suggest that more than 3% of UK properties could be affected by 2030 and nearly 11% by 2070.